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发布时间:2020-12-05  点击量:



Adding to the growing literature of sell-side analysts who think the answer to Apples (AAPL) market valuation woes (down 35% since September) is a low-cost iPhone, MorganStanleys Katy Huberty has looked at China, the worlds largest smartphone market, and done the math.苹果(Apple)于是以面对着市值体操的窘境,苹果股价从去年9月至今已暴跌了35%。众多卖方分析师争相献计献策,现在甚至有人建议苹果发售廉价iPhone。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)公司的凯蒂?休伯蒂对中国这一全球仅次于的智能手机市场展开了分析,并给大家忘了一笔账。

She made several points in a note to clients Tuesday that struck me as new:周二,她在给客户的一封信里明确提出了下面几个观点,令其我耳目一新:Contrary to the consensus view -- which assumes that smartphones in China will only get cheaper -- she cites research showing that the average selling price stablized last yearand has actually started to increase as Chinese users trade up to higher-quality smartphones.人们大多指出,中国的智能手机只不会更加低廉。与此相反,她援引一些研究结果,指出去年中国智能手机的平均值售价趋于稳定。同时随着中国用户开始出售品质更佳的智能手机,售价实质上已开始走高。

That Apple could launch a 2,000 yuan ($330) iPhone mini and be competitive with flagship products from Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE and Coolpad.苹果公司可以发售一款售价2,000元人民币(330美元)的迷你iPhone,这样就能和误解(Lenovo)、华为(Huawei)、中兴(ZTE)和酷派(Coolpad)的旗舰产品互为抗衡了。That even at a lower profit margin (say, 40%) and a 1/3 cannibalization rate (i.e. customers buy one third fewer full-priced iPhones), the cheaper iPhone would increase Applesrevenue and gross profits (see her spreadsheet above).就算利润率更加较低(比如40%),并且替代率为1/3(即全价iPhone的客户萎缩三分之一),低价iPhone也能提升苹果的营收和毛利润(闻下诏)。


That an iPhone mini and a LTE license from the Chinese government this year or next could finally persuade China Mobile (CHL), with 700 million subscribers, to cut a deal with Apple.发售迷你iPhone后,再加中国今年或明年授予LTE许可,就能最后劝说享有7亿用户的中国移动(China Mobile)和苹果签下。If all this comes to pass, Huberty estimates that Apples addressable smartphone market in China, which had dwindled to 10%, could triple to nearly 30%.如果上述情况都变为现实,休伯蒂估算苹果在中国智能手机市场上已跌到至10%的份额将不会提升三倍,超过近30%。This assumes, of course, that Apple can find a way to build a $330 iPhone with cheaper parts, a slower processor, a lower resolution screen and perhaps a plastic body, thatisnt, in the phrase Tim Cook used at a Goldman Sachs conference last week, a crappy product.当然,这得各不相同苹果否能设法用更加低廉的零部件、更快的处理器、分辨率更加较低的屏幕、以及或许是塑料机身来用上一部330美元的iPhone。

而用蒂姆?库克上周在高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)一次会议上的话说道,它绝不能是个“粗劣产品”。



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